Moore Trinidad & Tobago weighs in on the State of Emergency 2024 announcement.
On Monday, 30 December 2024, the Government of Trinidad and Tobago declared a 15-day State of Emergency (SoE), citing heightened criminal activity among gangs that has resulted in reprisals significantly affecting communities nationwide.
The SoE, which the government states is aimed at targeting criminal elements in “hot spots” across Trinidad and potentially in Tobago, does not include a curfew. While there are no restrictions on public gatherings or meetings, the increased security measures are likely to influence various aspects of daily life. Here is an analysis of the potential impacts.
Increased Security & Business Impact
For businesses operating in high-crime areas, the intensified presence of police and defence forces could reduce robberies and enhance the safety of both staff and customers. This might lead to increased foot traffic and higher sales in certain sectors. However, businesses located within or near "hot spots" could face disruptions from police operations, such as sweeps or arrests, potentially resulting in temporary closures or interruptions. If these measures are perceived as excessive, businesses might experience reduced customer engagement and a decline in overall activity.
Disruptions to Daily Operations
The heightened security presence may affect commuting and the movement of employees and customers, causing delays and impacting productivity. Businesses that rely on time-sensitive deliveries may encounter logistical challenges, while employees in high-risk areas could face difficulties reaching their workplaces due to roadblocks or safety concerns, leading to potential workforce shortages.
Consumer Behaviour & Business Activity
While some consumers may feel reassured by the government’s decisive stance on crime, others might adopt a more cautious approach, reducing discretionary spending. This hesitation could impact industries such as retail, hospitality, and tourism. The heightened security environment may also deter large public events, such as fêtes or festivals, affecting businesses that depend on these gatherings for revenue. With Carnival 2025 scheduled for early March, the SoE could have a detrimental economic effect on one of the country’s major income-generating events.
Supply Chain Challenges
Security checkpoints and roadblocks could disrupt the transportation of goods, particularly in areas targeted by the SoE. Businesses relying on just-in-time delivery systems might face delays and inventory shortages, potentially impacting operations and customer satisfaction.
Long-Term Economic Effects
The SoE may influence foreign investment decisions. While some investors may view the government’s focus on security positively, others could perceive it as indicative of broader instability, particularly in high-crime areas. Tourism, a vital contributor to the economy, could also suffer if potential visitors deem the country unsafe, even if the SoE does not directly affect tourist zones.
Social Impacts
Public reactions to the SoE are likely to vary. While some may welcome the increased security presence and feel safer, others—particularly those living in affected areas—could experience heightened anxiety or fear. Allegations of excessive force or unlawful detentions could provoke public protests or unrest. The social ramifications of the SoE could also shape the 2025 General Election, with both the government and opposition leveraging the situation to strengthen their respective campaigns.
Business Continuity & Risk Management
In light of potential disruptions, businesses are expected to implement contingency plans, such as shifting operations, adopting remote working arrangements, or enhancing security protocols. Maintaining clear communication with employees and customers will be critical in sustaining trust and ensuring smooth operations throughout the SoE period.
While the 15-day State of Emergency may improve security in some areas, it is also likely to cause significant disruptions for businesses and the public. For businesses, adaptability and proactive communication will be essential in navigating this period. For the wider population, the balance between enhanced safety measures and potential societal tensions will ultimately shape how the situation unfolds in the coming weeks.